| Trade Talks, Fed Hawks, Market Balks |
US equity markets posted modest declines this past week after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and maintained its status quo "wait-and-see" approach, but acknowledged heightened inflation and labor market risks. Meanwhile, White House officials headed to Switzerland to begin high-level trade talks with China, which follows the announcement of the first major post-Liberation Day trade deal with the United Kingdom. Following its best two-week stretch since late 2022, the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% this week - extending its drawdown to around 8% from its mid-February record highs. |
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2025-05-11 13:00:00 |
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| AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript |
AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 22, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Katherine Turlington - IR Peter Federico - Director, President and CEO Bernice Bell - EVP and CFO Christopher Kuehl - EVP and Chief Investment Officer Conference Call Participants Bose George - KBW Crispin Love - Piper Sandler Doug Harter - UBS Trevor Cranston - JMP Securities Matthew Erdner - JonesTrading Jason Stewart - Janney Montgomery Scott Eric Hagen - BTIG Rick Shane - JPMorgan Harsh Hemnani - Green Streets Operator Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp. First Quarter 2025 Shareholder Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-04-22 16:03:20 |
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| Powell On The Hot Seat |
US equity markets steadied this past week while bond markets rallied as investors parsed a surprisingly solid slate of economic data and a decent start to corporate earnings season. Early week gains were pared following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs and the reluctance of the Fed to step in to support markets. The hawkish comments sparked a series of blistering critiques by President Trump, accusing the Fed Chair of "playing politics" and posting that his "termination cannot come fast enough." |
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2025-04-20 13:00:00 |
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| Warning: These REITs Are A Dumpster Fire In 2025 |
We live in a very challenging environment. Many REITs are facing severe headwinds. Don't buy just anything. Here are some of the worst REITs to buy today. |
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2025-04-19 13:00:00 |
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| AGNC: Series C Preferred Shares A Buy Even As Fed Set To Slash Rates |
AGNC's focus on agency securities largely isolates it from weakness in U.S. economic growth. Preferred dividends were well covered in 2024, with book values likely to rise in Q1 2025. The Series C shares offer an attractive value proposition marginally below par value, allowing investors to achieve a long-term return close to 8%. |
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2025-04-10 15:37:09 |
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| Floating Preferreds Have Monstrous Yields Due To Timing Phenomenon |
Floating rate preferreds, initially created in a zero interest rate environment, now yield around 10% due to the timing phenomenon and changes in interest rates. Key factors for analysis include company stability, size of preferred issue relative to common equity, discount/premium to par value, and adjustment above SOFR. Risks include rapid yield curve fluctuations and potential Fed rate cuts, which could lower SOFR and subsequently reduce yields on floating rate preferreds. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-04-07 19:49:56 |
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| Countdown To Tariff Day |
Ahead of the April 2nd tariff unveiling, US equity markets were under renewed pressure this week on downbeat data showing a further dip in consumer confidence and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation. As a turbulent first quarter wraps up, the updated GDPNow - the Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracking model - forecasts growth of -2.8% overall and -0.5% on a "gold-adjusted basis." Posting weekly declines for the seventh time in the past nine weeks, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1.5% - extending its drawdown to 9.3% from its record-highs. |
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2025-03-30 13:00:00 |
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| State Of REITs: The 'Dark Age' Is Over |
While the S&P 500 and other major benchmarks entered "correction territory" this month for the first time since 2023, U.S. REITs have meaningfully outperformed the broader equity market since mid-January. The rebound follows a truly forgettable three-year period for REITs dating back to the start of the Fed's rate hiking cycle in which REITs have accumulated 40 percentage-points of underperformance. REITs remain as unloved as ever: The number of publicly listed REITs declined for a fourth-straight year in 2024. As an asset class, REITs are the single-largest "underweight" among institutional investors. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-03-27 18:47:09 |
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| Fed Looms As Sentiment Dims |
US equity markets remained under pressure this week as encouraging inflation data and a deal to avoid a government shutdown were offset by further tariff escalations and weak sentiment data. Markets struggled to agree on how the FOMC will interpret the latest economic data, with recent "hard data" showing encouraging trends while "softer" survey data has painted a far-bleaker outlook. Following its worst week in six months, the S&P 500 finished lower by another 2.3% this week - its fourth-straight week of declines - which dragged the index into "correction territory." |
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2025-03-16 11:00:00 |
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| Losers Of REIT Earnings Season |
In Part 3 of our Earnings Recap, we present a sector-by-sector breakdown of the Losers of REIT Earnings Season, discussing incremental positives/negatives and noting the individual standouts. Commercial Mortgage REITs were the "biggest loser" of REIT earnings season after results showed ongoing problems in the office space and a significant deterioration in multifamily bridge loan performance. Results from Hotel REITs were also disappointing given the record-levels of travel demand, as margin pressures from higher labor costs have taken a sizable bite out of bottom-line profitability. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-03-11 11:00:00 |
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| Tariff Turbulence |
US equity markets tumbled this week - suffering its worst week in six months - as disappointing employment reports and fast-shifting tariff policy failed to improve skittish investor sentiment. Reminiscent of Fed Chair Powell's infamous August 2022 "some pain ahead" speech, the Trump Administration warned of a "little disturbance" and a necessary "detox period" for the U.S. economy. Softer-than-expected employment data this week fueled doubts that sweeping overhauls to trade policy and fiscal spending can be accomplished without risking a recession. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-03-09 11:00:00 |
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| Bad Vibes, Positive Results |
US equity markets slumped this week - while benchmark interest rates tumbled to two-month lows - after downbeat economic data and cautious corporate commentary sparked concern over slowing economic growth. Compounded by some unsettling COVID-related headlines late in the week, investors adopted a more "risk off" position after consumer and business survey data picked up a sudden negative sentiment shift. After notching a pair of record-highs early in the week, a two-day tumble sent the S&P 500 lower by 1.6% on the week. Small-Caps and Mid-Caps both dipped over 3%. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-02-23 11:00:00 |
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| Inflation Isn't Dead Yet |
US equity markets flirted with fresh record-highs this week while benchmark interest rates hovered around two-month lows as investors weighed positive earnings news against uncomfortable hot inflation data. Complicating the policy outlook for the Federal Reserve, CPI data showed the fastest monthly rise in consumer prices since August, prompting a pledge from Powell for "more work to do." Snapping a two-week losing streak, the S&P 500 rebounded by 1.5%, closing fractionally below its prior record-high set in late January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rallied nearly 3%. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-02-16 11:00:00 |
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| AGNC: Preferreds Update And Rotation Into This 9.4% Yielder |
AGNC Investment Corp. preferreds offer high single-digit yields, zero credit-risk holdings, and a strong up-in capital profile, making them attractive to investors. AGNCL's reset structure provides a natural hedge, but recent outperformance and reduced Fed rate cut expectations make AGNCP's floating-rate shares more compelling. Relative to its floating-rate counterparts, AGNCP offers potential capital gains and lower call price risk. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-02-04 19:26:27 |
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| Volatility Is Back |
US equity markets posted modest declines this week amid a "DeepSeek" tumble, while interest rates declined to six-week lows as markets responded to the pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle. The Nasdaq 100 was the center of the action this week, dipping 1.4% on concern over potential competition from Chinese startup DeepSeek, which sparked a sharp sell-off in AI-darlings. Real estate equities were among the stronger performers for a third-straight week, buoyed by easing interest rates and by a relatively solid start to REIT earnings season. |
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2025-02-02 11:00:00 |
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| AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 28, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Katherine Turlington - Investor Relations Peter Federico - Director, President and Chief Executive Officer Bernie Bell - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Christopher Kuehl - Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer Conference Call Participants Bose George - KBW Doug Harter - UBS Crispin Love - Piper Sandler Trevor Cranston - JMP Securities Eric Hagen - BTIG Jason Stewart - Janney Montgomery Scott Harsh Hemnani - Green Street Advisors Operator Good morning and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp. Fourth Quarter 2024 Shareholder Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. |
seekingalpha.com |
2025-01-28 13:34:08 |
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| Morning In America |
Following the best week since November, U.S. markets posted their best first-week of a Presidential term since 1985 as investors saw business-friendly undertones in the early days of the new administration. Striking an agreeable tone for markets that were wary of the inflationary impacts of trade and fiscal policy, President Trump focused on supply side policies and didn't immediately implement sweeping tariffs. Posting record-highs for the first time since early December, the S&P 500 gained another 1.7% on the week, notching back-to-back weekly gains following a stretch of 4-of-5 weekly losses. |
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2025-01-26 11:00:00 |
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| State Of REITs: Recession To Recovery In 2025 |
The real estate cycle will finally transition from the "Recession" phase to the "Recovery" phase in 2025. Muted supply growth will be the silver-lining to the brutal three-year bear market. False Start: REITs surged 20% leading up to the Fed's initial "jumbo" interest rate cut in September, but have hit the skids once again since the rate cuts actually began. Historically Cheap: REITs have underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 45 percentage points since the start of the Fed hiking cycle in 2022 - a historically remarkable underperformance gap. |
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2024-12-19 13:00:00 |
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| 'Tis The Season For REIT Dividends |
U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record-highs while benchmark interest rates dipped sharply, as investors parsed inflation data and deliberated the potential implementation and impacts of Trump Administration policies. Markets cheered the nomination of Scott Bessent for US Treasury Secretary, reflecting expectations that the implementation of hawkish trade and immigration policies would consider the impacts on U.S. financial markets. Extending its post-election gains to around 6%, the S&P 500 advanced another 1.2% this week. The Small-Cap 600 gained 1.1% this week - lifting its post-election gains to over 10%. |
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2024-12-01 11:00:00 |
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| Select High Yield Preferreds Remain Opportunistically Priced |
Recent macroeconomic changes, including the yield curve uninverting and Fed rate cuts, have significantly impacted REIT preferreds, leading to price increases and varied forward return potentials. Despite overall price rises, select REIT preferreds remain deeply discounted, offering high yields and substantial capital appreciation potential. Mispricing due to accrued dividends and variable rate conversions presents lucrative opportunities in preferreds. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-11-26 20:03:10 |
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| A Decisive Realignment |
U.S. equity markets soared to record highs this week after President-elect Trump scored a surprisingly decisive election victory, including a likely "trifecta" of Republican legislative control in Congress. The outcome sparked powerful moves across global financial markets as investors priced in a combination of domestic-focused and "pro-growth" economic policies but also reflected concern over deficits and immigration policy. Characteristic of the "Trump trade" dynamic, smaller-cap companies led the surge, outperforming mega-cap technology and international-heavy peers. The S&P Small-Cap 600 soared 9%, outpacing 5% gains from the S&P 500. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-11-10 11:00:00 |
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| Pivotal Decisions |
Ahead of a pivotal week of consequential decisions, U.S. equity markets posted a second-straight week of declines as investors parsed a relatively disappointing slate of employment and inflation data. The pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the U.S. economy added just 12k jobs in October - the weakest month since 2020 - with notably weaker trends under the surface. Private employment declined by 28k during the month, fueled by the largest plunge in manufacturing employment since the pandemic shutdown, alongside job declines in retail, transportation, and hospitality. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-11-03 11:00:00 |
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| Brace For Volatility |
U.S. equity markets snapped a six-week winning streak, while benchmark interest rates surged to three-month highs as investors braced for a volatile two-week stretch of market-moving events. Another surprisingly solid slate of domestic economic data - highlighted by improved jobless claims and consumer sentiment reports - lifted the U.S. Economic Surprise Index to the highest-level since April. Retreating from record-highs, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1% on the week, declining for just the second time in the past twelve weeks. Rate-sensitive segments and small-caps were laggards. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-10-27 11:00:00 |
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| Encouraging Signs For Mortgage REITs |
Mortgage REITs (mREITs) are becoming more attractive due to reduced RMBS spreads, alleviated negative convexity, lower cost of capital, and a positive carry from an uninverted yield curve. The macro environment shift suggests strong 3Q24 earnings for mREITs, making common shares potentially opportunistic and bolstering preferred dividend payments. Despite historical weaknesses, mREITs like AGNC could be worth considering at moderate discounts, with potential trading opportunities around earnings releases. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-10-22 20:41:14 |
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| AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC ) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 22, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Katie Turlington - IR Peter Federico - Director, President and CEO Bernie Bell - EVP and CFO Chris Kuehl - EVP and CIO Aaron Pas - SVP, Non-Agency Portfolio Management Conference Call Participants Bose George - KBW Crispin Love - Piper Sandler Rick Shane - JPMorgan Doug Harter - UBS Trevor Cranston - JMP Securities Eric Hagen - BTIG Jason Stewart - Janney Montgomery Harsh Hemnani - Green Street Operator Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp Third Quarter 2024 Shareholder Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-10-22 15:10:05 |
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| An October Surprise |
U.S. equity markets extended gains to a fourth-straight week despite a resurgence in benchmark interest rates after a critical slate of employment data showed surprisingly strong labor market trends. One of several strong employment reports, Nonfarm Payrolls data showed that the U.S. economy added 254k jobs in September - the strongest in six months and well above consensus estimates. Combined with a nearly 10% surge in crude oil prices driven by renewed Middle East tensions, markets reflected a significantly less aggressive Fed rate cut path in the months ahead. |
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2024-10-06 13:00:00 |
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| Rates Down, REITs Up |
Rates down, REITs up? Two years of persistent rate-driven pressure on residential and commercial real estate markets appears to finally be abating as the worst of pandemic-era inflationary pressures subside. Since the "pivot' in early July, the REIT Index has outpaced the S&P 500 by 10 percentage points. Despite this rebound, REITs still have 35 percentage points of "catch-up" to do. REITs aren't quite as "cheap" now as they were at the end of June, but that's not such a bad thing: premium equity valuations are the "fuel" for REITs' external growth. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-09-03 14:00:00 |
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| A Summer To Remember |
U.S. equity markets climbed to record-highs while benchmark interest rates rebounded from eight-month lows on a relatively quiet end-of-summer week as investors parsed a 'Goldilocks' slate of economic data. PCE data showed modest inflationary pressures in July - keeping the Fed on course for multiple rate cuts by year-end - while consumer spending and consumer confidence data topped estimates. Posting gains for a fourth week following a three-week skid in late July, the S&P 500 gained another 0.3% this week. The Dow Jones finished the week at all-time record-highs. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-09-01 13:00:00 |
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| Chasing Goldilocks |
U.S. equity markets rallied while benchmark interest rates remained near the lows of the year after a critical slate of inflation data showed further encouraging signs of cooling price pressures. The Consumer Price Index posted a downside surprise for a fourth straight month, underscored by a "2-Handle" on Headline CPI, which follows a period of historically high inflation from 2021 to 2023. Sparking a renewed "Goldilocks" narrative, Retail Sales data was notably stronger than expected in July - posting its strongest monthly increase in 18 months - while Jobless Claims also moderated. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-08-18 13:00:00 |
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| The Return Of Volatility |
In a highly volatile week across global financial markets, U.S. equity markets ultimately finished the week little-changed, while benchmark interest rates rebounded from the lowest levels of the year. Following a historic surge in volatility, stabilization in Asian and European markets, decent jobless claims data, and clarity on the domestic Presidential matchup helped to ease market jitters. Narrowly avoiding a fourth-straight week of losses, the S&P 500 finished flat - staging a late-week rebound after sharp declines early in the week. The Nasdaq remained in "correction territory." |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-08-11 13:00:00 |
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| A Fragile Facade |
U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record-highs during the Independence Day week, while interest rates fell sharply after a critical slate of employment data showed evidence of cooling labor markets. Traders monitored the continued fallout from the prior week's lopsided debate, reflecting an increased probability that President Biden will step aside ahead of the November elections. Narrow market breadth - notably, the outperformance of large-cap equities over small-caps - remained a theme this week, as it has since the start of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-07-07 13:00:00 |
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| Sell Alert: 3 REITs That Could Cut Their Dividend |
Not all REITs are in a position to grow their dividend. In fact, quite a few are at high risk of cutting it. Here are 3 REITs that will likely cut the cheese. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-06-25 11:45:00 |
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| A Critical Cooldown |
U.S. equity markets posted a mixed performance this week, while benchmark interest rates dipped to two-month lows after a critical slate of inflation data showed an encouraging cooldown in price pressures. As expected, the Fed held rates steady at two-decade highs of 5.50%, but the committee's "dot plots" showed that the FOMC is now penciling in just one rate-cut in 2024. Posting a series of record highs throughout the week, the S&P 500 advanced another 1.6% to extend its year-to-date total returns to over 15%, but the gains were notably top-heavy. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-06-16 13:00:00 |
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| State Of REIT Nation: Waiting At The Bottom |
REITweek, the annual REIT industry conference, was held last week in New York City. Humbled by two years of rate-driven headwinds, the venue halls were as quiet as any REITweek. Excitement was muted after numerous "false starts" on the long-awaited Fed pivot, a dearth of IPO and M&A activity, and a two-year period of significant underperformance versus the broader market. It can only get better: since the start of the Fed's rate hike cycle in March 2022, the REIT Index has underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 40 percentage-points. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-06-10 13:00:00 |
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| AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC ) Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call April 23, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Katie Turlington - Investor Relations Peter Federico - Director, President and Chief Executive Officer Bernie Bell - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Chris Kuehl - Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer Aaron Pas - Senior Vice President, Non-Agency Portfolio Management Sean Reid - Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development Conference Call Participants Bose George - KBW Rick Shane - JPMorgan Terry Ma - Barclays Crispin Love - Piper Sandler Doug Harter - UBS Jason Weaver - Jones Trading Merrill Ross - Compass Point Jake Katsikas - BTIG Operator Good morning and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp First Quarter 2024 Shareholder Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. |
seekingalpha.com |
2024-04-23 17:03:08 |
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| A Hawkish Pivot |
U.S. equity markets posted their worst week in a year while benchmark interest rates surged to five-month highs as investors monitored an intensification of geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed commentary. Inflamed by resurgent energy prices and insatiable Federal government spending, Fed Chair Powell and other officials acknowledged a stalling-out of inflation progress in recent months and delayed cut expectations. Declining on all five trading sessions, the S&P 500 declined another 3.1% this week - its worst week since March 2023 - while high-flying technology stocks were hit particularly hard. |
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2024-04-21 13:00:00 |
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| AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) UBS Financial Services Conference (Transcript) |
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) UBS Financial Services Conference (Transcript) |
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2024-02-27 19:27:09 |
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